Bias confirmed

While writing the ‘expected outcomes’ section of my research proposal, I thought:

Hey, wow, this is what I will find? Awesome! I’m excited – bring on the results!

Hang on… what? I don’t know I’ll find this – that’s why it’s called ‘expected outcomes’, not ‘certain outcomes’!

Then the alarm bells started ringing in my head and speakers were screaming: CONFIRMATION BIAS – IT’S A BAD CASE! NO ONE IS TO GO NEAR HER!

You’ve probably heard about this thing called confirmation bias – even though I’m sure you don’t suffer from it. Defined as the tendency to favour information that confirms our beliefs or hypotheses, understanding it is crucial to all researchers out there. I mean, no one starts a project thinking: “Oh, I’m really not sure at all what I want to prove with my research – I’m just pottering about trying to find some sort of a result”. No, it is more like: “I want to prove this, and will succeed!”. Ok, maybe that’s a bit harsh. I’d like to think that if a desired result just isn’t there, a researcher would abandon her study ship. Right?

Why is confirmation bias a bad thing? Well, it distorts reality. Say many clever people are working on solving a problem – maybe one that is too small to even bother with, or worse, one of which the solution is the antithesis of the proposition to be proven. Due to confirmation bias, our clever people ignore the evidence against their theory and instead plough on until they finally get results in their favour. Now they propose new policies based on their findings to let all people enjoy the benefits of this amazing, new (but unfortunately incorrect) theory. I’m guessing you get the point.

So, what is to be done about this threat to research?

To have a goal in mind is important, I believe. Pottering about is not the right way to conduct a study – if it wasn’t for the very specific and focused research of Ts’ai Lun and Nikola Tesla you would be reading this blog from a slab of slate by candle light. No, it has to be solved in another way.

Think… Ah yes, think! And then re-think!

Maybe that’s a step towards ridding ourselves of confirmation bias – reevaluating our results. And I am talking about the actual results – not what you hope to find. Look at the data and conduct your analysis as though you’ve forgotten what’s written in your ‘expected outcomes’ section.

Easier said than done, I know. But if everyone works a little towards this unbiased, utopian research world, maybe – just maybe – we can stop furrowing our brows, shaking our heads and running to our desks to replicate a study’s results… and instead feel more confident that the researcher has factored in her confirmation bias. This one definitely has…